Australia’s spiraling cost of missing early warning signs in our children

27 Aug 2025 – A new report reveals the economic burden of failing to identify health and development issues in young Australians has surged almost 50 per cent to $22.3 billion annually.

Minderoo Foundation’s Cost of Late Intervention (COLI) report, compiled by The Front Project, shows late intervention now costs $838 per Australian every year, or $2,704 for every child and young person aged 0-24.

The 47 per cent rise in spending from $15.2 billion – when the last COLI study was published in 2019 – significantly exceeds both inflation and population growth, highlighting the urgent need for a national shift toward early intervention strategies.

Late intervention refers to the spending on statutory, acute, and essential services and benefits provided when children or young people are in crisis or facing serious issues. These services – largely funded by government – are not only expensive but often represent missed opportunities to change life trajectories through earlier, more effective support.

“Early intervention not only reduces long-term costs but also improves life outcomes for hundreds of thousands of children and young people,” Nicola Forrest AO said.

“This is a clear case of opportunity cost. By failing to intervene early, we miss the chance to achieve better outcomes for children and young people – and a better return on investment for society.”

The new report reveals the largest share of late intervention spending is on child protection at $10.2 billion – a 72 per cent increase since 2019 – while spending on family violence has more than doubled in the same period.

Youth crime and unemployment make up the second and third most costly line items respectively.

New South Wales has the highest overall late intervention expenditure at $6.4 billion, followed by Victoria ($5.3 billion) and Queensland ($5 billion). However, per capita spending is highest in the Northern Territory at $2,808 – nearly triple that of South Australia ($1,011) and significantly more than Queensland ($921).

The report also highlights a critical economic imbalance: while state governments bear the brunt of short-term costs, the federal government stands to gain long-term benefits from early intervention through increased tax revenue and reduced reliance on welfare.

The report draws on The Nest, an evidence-based framework developed by the Australian Research Alliance for Children and Youth, which outlines six key areas of wellbeing for children and young people. It also highlights the work of the Early Years Catalyst, which has mapped 10 key systems – ranging from health and early learning to housing and social security – that underpin early childhood development.

The report calls for co-ordinated investment across all levels of government to address issues before they escalate and apply the best evidence on what works.

The report further advocates for more regular data collection and better tracking of spending to ascertain if investments in early intervention are working. Finally, the report suggests implementing evidence-based policies that support early intervention into every layer of decision making, from supporting families to funding wraparound models that address complex challenges.

“There is a huge social cost when children’s wellbeing needs are not met,” the report warns. “For every child and young person who needs intensive services, there is a significant impact on families and communities.”

Importantly, the report emphasises that while late intervention will always be necessary, governments can save money – and spare considerable human hardship – by acting earlier.

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